Heartbreaking Betrayal Reveals Endgame Strategies

And with only five Houseguests remaining in the house, it quickly becomes clear which alliances and relationships are real and which ones are about as true as Blue being told she was safe until about 45 minutes before Thursday’s live eviction.

We peeked behind the curtains of the latest double eviction and saw why it was that Blue was dolled up for the first eviction, rather than being ready to compete in the next competition. Felicia couldn’t let her get blindsided on live television, so clued her in.

From there, Blue made the rounds to everyone else (except for Bowie Jane) and had words for them. At least she was smiles and laughs with jag and Matt, even admitting that she definitely was going to be coming after them. It was the right move for their game.

Actually, all the moves these past many weeks have been right for their games. Matt and Jag have been dominating this back half of the game in almost unprecedented fashion, with Bowie as their unwitting third wheel.

Does she really think either would take her over the other? Actually, they might. We know Jag will cut anyone to eliminate possible competitors to his title. If he has the power to make a decision at that point, he’ll take the easiest path to victory. Bowie will be far easier to beat than anyone else left in the house.

Matt has made comments that he’d be willing to take Jag out, but he also says at other times he’d like to sit next to him. All he needs is a couple more competition wins under his belt and he might have a case. Hell, Jag wouldn’t even be in the house had Matt not saved him after his 10-0 eviction.

Matt could easily argue he saved Jag to create an unbreakable ally who would fight for him and never target him. Look how well that worked! Plus, Matt has never been on the block and finally picked up his fourth win last week. It’s not Jag’s seven, but it’s not too shabby, either.

This week’s Head of Household competition saw the Houseguests rolling a ball across a wavy table, aiming at targets raised on the other end with their superhero faces on them. Each of the HGs has three targets, and the last target standing wins. As outgoing HOH, Bowie wasn’t involved at all — but her allegiances are pretty clear.

The twist that winds up revealing a lot is that they have to call their shots. If they hit a target they didn’t call, that target resets and the game continues. In other words, there’s no hiding your true targets, or pretending it was an accident when you take them out.

Right away, it was clear that Matt and Jag were in lockstep and had Felicia in their sights. Of the first 16 shots in the game, Mama Fe took ten of them and then got eliminated. That’s an incredible focus on the oldest player in the house.

Once Felicia was out, the boys started ganging up on the second oldest player. Even here, neither Matt nor Jag would target the other. That’s either a very strong alliance, or they’re both a little bit nervous about the other.

In truth, we suspect it’s a bit of both. Jag is absolutely refusing to believe Mama Fe’s story that Matt told Cirie he was willing to take a shot at Jag if given the chance, and might even feel he has to do it to win. Matt absolutely said that, but Jag’s loyalty to Matt made him trust Matt covering his tracks.

Then, Matt quickly trusted Cirie covering her tracks when she denied saying any such thing to Felicia … which she totally did. Mama Fe does not keep her mouth shut. She’s been trying to throw Cirie and Matt under the bus in hopes Jag would take her to Final Two.

Both Cirie and Felicia keep underestimating how much Matt and Jag are working with and protecting Bowie, despite the fact they continue to never put her on the block. It’s working, too, as she won the last HOH and once again did their bidding.

When we say their bidding, though, it’s generally Jag’s bidding. He’s been the loudest and most controlling voice of The Minutemen, with Matt usually bowing to his wishes. Now, though, things are going to quickly come down to the wire!

After Mama Fe was taken out, Cirie managed to take out Jag singlehandedly. Unfortunately, she’d been battling two against one all that time, so Matt took her out with the very next shot, securing his win.

Now, Matt had promised her earlier that if he ever won HOH, she’d never see the block. Would he stay true to that? Bowie is ridiculously crazy about ever seeing the block, like it’s a personal betrayal. She is so emotionally erratic, so they’ve been managing her very carefully.

If Felicia is Matt’s target, and he quickly makes it clear that she is, than how can he keep Bowie from feeling betrayed the second she’s on the block and keep his word to Mama C? The quick answer is that he can’t.

And so he doesn’t. Instead, he makes it very clear what 89 days of friendship really means at the end of the day. He puts Cirie on the block. It’s such a short-sighted thing to do, too, if he really wants to protect her.

Jag has made it clear time and again that he doesn’t trust CIrie. Felicia is messy, but Cirie is someone he actually worries about and sees as a threat. Matt does not vote this week. Jag and Bowie do. If Cirie is still on the block come Thursday night, she’s far more likely to go home over Felicia.

If Matt were to win Veto, would he take Cirie down? Only if he was ready to take a shot at Jag and backdoor him. That would be his best-case scenario. But if he really wanted Cirie to go to the end with him and Jag, he should have put Felicia and Bowie up. Then, if either of them comes down, he can decide what to do about Jag’s dominant game.

Now, he’s given all the power to Jag and could lose the person he’s closest to outside of The Minutemen, and the person who may just be most likely to take him to the FInal Two out of the other four Houseguests still in the game.

Jag Bains (25, truck company owner) is in the best position right now in the game and remains the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing. He’s the strongest competitor, so most likely to make it to the end, and even as people are leaving the house, they’re telling him how much they love and respect him. No one should want to go to the end with him, and yet he’s positioned to take himself. [Grade: A+]

Matthew Klotz (27, deaflympics gold medalist) may have sealed his own fate by winning this HOH and then putting up someone who was one hundred percent in his corner. He’s building a stronger resume against Jag, so he could potentially beat him in the final. There are easier paths to victory, but he is definitely not setting the stage for that. With his zero nominations and the fact everyone loves him, we could see Jag or anyone cutting him loose before the end … and Jag beating him in a Final 2 scenario with a stronger ability to plead his case. [Grade: B-]

Bowie Jane Ball (46, barrister/DJ) might just float to the end at this point as Jag is still steering this ship and no one thinks the jury would ever award her anything, despite her strong participation in this threesome she’s a part of — without realizing how expendable they believe she is. If they stay loyal, she’d have to win her way to the end. Otherwise, third place is as far as she’ll likely go. We admit we got this one wrong as they’ve been targeting competition threats. Now, they seem to want to stick with loyalty (which is the better move at this point, honesty). [Grade: C-]

Felicia Cannon (63, real estate agent) is failing to gain any ground with her messy gameplay to the point she’s even being doubted when she’s telling the truth. Now that she’s set a new Big Brother record with her seventh time on the block, she’s building the kind of resume Taylor Hale carried to victory last season. Taylor won two comps and sat on the block six times. The underdog story can be compelling, and as the oldest player, she’s got one hell of a story. [Grade: D+]

Cirie Fields (53, nurse) is in trouble and we’re not sure Matt can save her. We can’t count her out yet, because she can be very persuasive. The problem is that she has to persuade Jag, who has not trusted her for weeks and weeks now, and/or Bowie Jane, who will never make an independent decision in this game. If Jag tells her to vote out Cirie (and he most likely will), that’s what she’ll do. Cirie needs one vote to force a tie and then hope Matt votes for her to stay. We’re note sure he would if Jag pushes him to send her packing. Matt has yet to fully stand up to Jag this whole season. Cirie needs to hope she wins Veto or she’s done. And as she’s won nothing so far, we don’t see it happening. She has a compelling story, too, if she makes it to the end as someone who’s never won anything and been playing from the bottom half of the game. Her path to her end, though, is suddenly looking quite short. [Grade: D]

• “I respect you too much as a game player to think that you would take me to the end.” –Jag (to Blue before eviction)
• “If it’s not both of you in Final 2, I hope one of you or both of you follow me.” –Blue (to Jag and Matt)
• “Personally, I really wanted it to be us three. Game wise, it was y’all asses!” –Blue (confirming she was gunning for them)
• “I figured it out. He didn’t tell me … and I just want to say, it was an honor to play with you.” –Blue (telling Cirie she knew Jared was her son)
• “I’m tired of everyone feeling like it’s okay for Felicia to be the pawn.” –Felicia (in DR before second nominations)
• “Honestly, Bowie doesn’t have my best interests in mind.” –America (plea to Matt, but why should he care?)
• “They’re gonna win. They’re gonna be Final Two and they’re gonna win. I’ve seen this over and over again.” –America (to Houseguests during vote about Matt and Jag)
• “You’re never going up if I win. You’ve never gotta f–king worry.” –Matt (to Cirie before HOH competition)
• “If we win this HOH, Felicia’s gotta go.” –Matt (to Jag in front of Cirie)
• “Felicia was like, ‘I have crucial information.’ Cirie went to Felicia and told her that you are trying to get me out.” –Jag (to Matt)
• “They’re gonna try and get between us. I had a feeling that was gonna happen soon … They want us to go at each other so they can get to the end.” –Matt (to Jag)
• She told me that you told her a month ago that you would take a shot at Jag … Now she’s saying I said it.” –Cirie (covering her butt to Matt)
• “I just don’t believe Felicia when she’s telling me Matt is targeting me. With Cirie, I don’t trust her … I don’t really trust anyone besides Matt and Bowie.” –Jag (in DR)
• “Now, with this Veto win, I don’t feel like I need to take a shot at Jag anymore … I’m practicaly aligned with everyone else in this game, but I want The Minutemen to stay strong.” –Matt (in DR)
• “I don’t want it to appear that one is more a target than the other.” –Cirie (in DR about HOH strategy)
• “Two on one against a granny? You’re an Olympian and Jag has won 75 comps and it takes two of you to take down a grandma?” –Cirie (in DR about HOH)
• “It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that everybody was gunning for me tonight.” –Felicia (after HOH)
• “I’m happy for you. Don’t put me up!” –Cirie (to Matt after HOH)
• “I’m going to put up Felicia and Bowie.” –Matt (to Cirie)
• “They gonna do me the way they just did Blue.” –Felicia (to Cirie)
• “That’s Reilly with my mom?!” –Matt (in DR after getting his HOH pictures)
• “I guess I’ve got a girlfriend after this.” –Matt (reading letter from Reilly)
• “It’s you and Bowie.” –Matt (to Cirie about the block)
• “I have had your back since long before Bowie even came into the picture. Bowie’s never been on the block. You would not have had to worry about being on the block if I had won. I would never put you up.” –Cirie
• “I’ve got to put you up. But it doesn’t matter. … You’re going to be fine. I promise. For me, I really want Felicia gone. Everyone in this house wants Felicia gone.” –Matt (to Cirie)
• “So what’s the ultimate plan? For you, Jag, and Bowie to be Final Three?” –Cirie
• “The ultimate plan…” –Matt (hemming and hawing)
• “Whoever sits next to Jag is gonna have a problem” –Cirie
• “Yeah, he wins.” –Matt
• “I have to see if this is the week.” –Matt (to Cirie about taking out Jag)
• “There’s no other week left.” –Cirie

Big Brother continues Sunday at 10pm ET, Tuesday at 8pm ET, and Thursday at 9pm ET on CBS.